@article {15462,
	title = {Fine-scale monitoring and mapping of biodiversity and ecosystem services reveals multiple synergies and few tradeoffs in urban green space management},
	journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
	year = {2022},
	month = {2022},
	pages = {157801},
	publisher = {Elsevier},
	isbn = {0048-9697},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969722049002},
	author = {Belaire, J Amy and Higgins, Caitlin and Zoll, Deidre and Lieberknecht, Katherine and Bixler, R Patrick and Neff, John L and Keitt, Timothy H and Jha, Shalene}
}
@article {15461,
	title = {The mismatch between range and niche limits due to source-sink dynamics can be greater than species mean dispersal distance},
	journal = {The American Naturalist},
	year = {2022},
	month = {2022},
	isbn = {0003-0147},
	url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/720420},
	author = {Goel, Nikunj and Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {15460,
	title = {Wavelet characterization of spatial pattern in allele frequency},
	journal = {bioRxiv},
	year = {2022},
	month = {2022},
	publisher = {Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory},
	url = {https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.21.485229v1},
	author = {Lasky, Jesse R and Gamba, Diana and Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {santorelli_junior_neutral_2022,
	title = {Neutral processes and reduced dispersal across Amazonian rivers may explain how rivers maintain species diversity after secondary contact},
	journal = {Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation},
	year = {2022},
	pages = {S2530064421001012},
	issn = {25300644},
	doi = {10.1016/j.pecon.2021.12.004},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2530064421001012},
	author = {Santorelli Junior, Sergio and Magnusson, William E. and de Deus, Cl{\'a}udia Pereira and Timothy H. Keitt}
}
@article {northup2021cavitation,
	title = {Cavitation-Resistant Junipers Cease Transpiration Earlier Than Cavitation-Vulnerable Oaks Under Summer Dry Conditions},
	journal = {Ecohydrology},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {e2337},
	author = {Northup, Alison P and Keitt, Timothy H and Farrior, Caroline E}
}
@article {14034,
	title = {Ecology in the age of automation},
	journal = {Science},
	volume = {373},
	number = {6557},
	year = {2021},
	pages = {858-859},
	url = {https://science.sciencemag.org/content/373/6557/858/tab-pdf},
	author = {Keitt, Timothy H and Abelson, Eric}
}
@article {Liebhold2020,
	title = {Scale invariance in the spatial-dynamics of biological invasions},
	journal = {NeoBiota},
	volume = {62},
	year = {2020},
	month = {oct},
	pages = {269{\textendash}277},
	publisher = {Pensoft Publishers},
	abstract = {Despite the enormous negative consequences of biological invasions, we have a limited understanding of how spatial demography during invasions creates population patterns observed at different spatial scales. Early stages of invasions, arrival and establishment, are considered distinct from the later stage of spread, but the processes of population growth and dispersal underlie all invasion phases. Here, we argue that the spread of invading species, to a first approximation, exhibits scale invariant spatial-dynamic patterns that transcend multiple spatial scales. Dispersal from a source population creates smaller satellite colonies, which in turn act as sources for secondary invasions; the scale invariant pattern of coalescing colonies can be seen at multiple scales. This self-similar pattern is referred to as {\textquotedblleft}stratified diffusion{\textquotedblright} at landscape scales and the {\textquotedblleft}bridgehead effect{\textquotedblright} at the global scale. The extent to which invasions exhibit such scale-invariant spatial dynamics may be limited by the form of the organisms{\textquoteright} dispersal kernel and by the connectivity of the habitat. Recognition of this self-similar pattern suggests that certain concepts for understanding and managing invasions might be widely transferable across spatial scales.},
	keywords = {bridgehead effect, coalescing colonies, invasion framework, self-similarity, spread, stratified dispersal},
	issn = {1314-2488},
	doi = {10.3897/neobiota.62.53213},
	url = {https://neobiota.pensoft.net/article/53213/},
	author = {Liebhold, Andrew M. and Timothy H. Keitt and Goel, Nikunj and Bertelsmeier, Cleo}
}
@article {schank2020population,
	title = {Population status, connectivity, and conservation action for the endangered Baird\&$\#$39;s tapir},
	journal = {Biological Conservation},
	volume = {245},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {108501},
	publisher = {Elsevier},
	author = {Schank, Cody J and Cove, Michael V and Arima, Eugenio Y and Brandt, Laroy SE and Brenes-Mora, Esteban and Carver, Andrew and Diaz-Pulido, Angelica and Estrada, Nereyda and Foster, Rebecca J and God{\'{\i}nez-G{\'o}mez, Oscar and others}
}
@article {11390,
	title = {Altitudinal limits of Eastern Himalayan birds are created by competition past and present},
	journal = {PLOS ONE},
	volume = {10.1371/journal.pone.0217549},
	year = {2019},
	url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0217549},
	author = {Gautam S. Surya and Timothy H. Keitt}
}
@article {14320,
	title = {Border wall: bad for biodiversity},
	journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment},
	volume = {16},
	number = {3},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {137-138},
	isbn = {1540-9295},
	author = {Norma Fowler and Tim Keitt and Olivia Schmidt and Martin Terry and Keeper Trout}
}
@article {10239,
	title = {Predicting the reef acoustic cuescape from the perspective of larval fishes across a habitat quality gradient.},
	journal = {MARINE ECOLOGY PROGRESS SERIE},
	volume = {605},
	year = {2018},
	pages = {173-193},
	abstract = {
	ABSTRACT: The combined acoustic activity of soniferous organisms living in benthic habitats produces habitat-specific soundscapes, which are predicted to influence fish and invertebrate lar- val behavior during the settlement process. Not every sound will have the amplitude and fre- quency characteristics relative to hearing sensitivity to be used as an acoustic cue, thus the cuescape is a subset of the soundscape. These sounds vary through space and time, and little is known about how this variability could influence their role in settlement. We recorded the sound- scapes of 4 coral reefs in Caribbean Panama for 6 wk and conservatively identified the sounds most likely to compose the cuescapes used by larval fishes. While these sites represented the vari- ation in reef condition across the study area, we observed the same 4 dominant taxa groups emerge as the most likely producers of acoustic cues. These results were consistent across both time and space when compared to short-term recordings taken at these 4 reefs and at an addi- tional 11 sites 2 yr prior. Next, we used an individual-based model to test the relationship between settlement success and the natural spatiotemporal variability we observed in these potential cues. Temporal variation in the sounds resulted in variation in settlement success; however, even short- range, intermittent cues improved the likelihood of settlement. Overall, we observed similar acoustic cuescapes across reefs that varied in condition, suggesting that cuescapes can be resilient to some forms of reef degradation by retaining sounds potentially useful to larval fishes for both navigation and habitat selection.



	KEY WORDS: Coral reef {\textperiodcentered} Soundscape {\textperiodcentered} Larval fish {\textperiodcentered} Larval settlement {\textperiodcentered} Acoustics {\textperiodcentered} Modeling {\textperiodcentered} Cues {\textperiodcentered} Fish behavior

},
	author = {Salas, A. and Altieri, A. H. and Wilson, P. and Keitt, T. H.}
}
@newspaperarticle {9512,
	title = {Border wall would kill natural treasures and change the environment},
	journal = {The Hill},
	year = {2018},
	url = {http://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/381832-border-wall-would-kill-natural-treasures-and-change-the},
	author = {Tim Keitt}
}
@software {tim_keitt_2018_1213798,
	title = {thk686/kdtools: cran_0.1.0},
	year = {2018},
	doi = {10.5281/zenodo.1213798},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1213798},
	author = {Tim Keitt}
}
@article {Dietze201710231,
	title = {Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	year = {2018},
	publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
	abstract = {Two foundational questions about sustainability are {\textquotedblleft}How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?{\textquotedblright} and {\textquotedblleft}How do human decisions affect these trajectories?{\textquotedblright} Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.},
	issn = {0027-8424},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1710231115},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/01/29/1710231115},
	author = {Dietze, Michael C. and Fox, Andrew and Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M. and Betancourt, Julio L. and Hooten, Mevin B. and Jarnevich, Catherine S. and Timothy H. Keitt and Kenney, Melissa A. and Laney, Christine M. and Larsen, Laurel G. and Loescher, Henry W. and Lunch, Claire K. and Pijanowski, Bryan C. and Randerson, James T. and Read, Emily K. and Tredennick, Andrew T. and Vargas, Rodrigo and Weathers, Kathleen C. and White, Ethan P.}
}
@article {8692,
	title = {Step-wise drops in modularity and the fragmentationof exploited marine metapopulations},
	journal = {Landscape Ecology},
	year = {2017},
	month = {2017},
	url = {http://rdcu.be/sY1A},
	author = {Tania S. Pen\~{}a and James R. Watson and Laura I. Gonza{\textasciiacute}lez-Guzma{\textasciiacute}n and Timothy H. Keitt}
}
@article {ECOG:ECOG2303,
	title = {A hierarchical model of whole assemblage island biogeography},
	journal = {Ecography},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {n/a{\textendash}n/a},
	publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
	abstract = {Island systems have long played a central role in the development of ecology and evolutionary biology. However, while many empirical studies suggest species differ in vital biogeographic rates, such as dispersal abilities, quantitative methods have had difficulty incorporating such differences into analyses of whole-assemblages. In particular, differences in dispersal abilities among species can cause variation in the spatial clustering and localization of species distributions. Here, we develop a single, hierarchical Bayes, assemblage-wide model of 252 bird species distributions on the islands of Northern Melanesia and use it to investigate a) whether dispersal limitation structures bird assemblages across the archipelago, b) whether species differ in dispersal ability, and c) test the hypothesis that wing aspect ratio, a trait linked to flight efficiency, predicts differences inferred by the model. Consistent with island biogeographic theory, we found that individual species were more likely to occur on islands with greater area, and on islands near to other islands where the species also occurred. However, species showed wide variation in the importance and spatial scale of these clustering effects. The importance of clustering in distributions was greater for species with low wing aspect ratios, and the spatial scale of clustering was also smaller for low aspect ratio species. These findings suggest that the spatial configuration of islands interacts with species dispersal ability to affect contemporary distributions, and that these species differences are detectable in occurrence patterns. More generally, our study demonstrates a quantitative, hierarchical approach that can be used to model the influence of dispersal heterogeneity in diverse assemblages and test hypotheses for how traits drive dispersal differences, providing a framework for deconstructing ecological assemblages and their drivers.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
	keywords = {Birds, Dispersal, hierarchical Bayes, island biogeography, Melanesia, occupancy model, species-area curve},
	issn = {1600-0587},
	doi = {10.1111/ecog.02303},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02303},
	author = {Lasky, Jesse R and Keitt, Timothy H and Weeks, Brian C. and Economo, Evan P}
}
@article {ECY:ECY1444,
	title = {A dynamically downscaled projection of past and future microclimates},
	journal = {Ecology},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {n/a{\textendash}n/a},
	abstract = {Ecological forecasting requires information about the climatic conditions experienced by organisms. Despite impressive methodological and computational advances, ecological forecasting still suffers from poor resolutions of environmental data. Published data comprise relatively few layers of surface climate and suffer from coarse temporal resolution. Hence, models using these data might underestimate heterogeneity of microclimates and miss biological consequences of climatic extremes. Moreover, we currently lack predictions about vegetation cover in future environments, a key factor for estimating the spatial heterogeneity of microclimates and hence the capacity for behavioral thermoregulation. Here, we describe microclimates and vegetation for the past and the future at spatial and temporal resolutions of 36 km (approximately 0.3{\textdegree}) and 1 h, respectively. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting model to downscale published, bias-corrected predictions of a global-circulation model from a resolution of 0.9{\textdegree} latitude and 1.25{\textdegree} (approximately 100 km in latitude and 130 km in longitude). Output from this model was used as input for a microclimate model, which generated temperatures and wind speeds for 1980{\textendash}1999 and 2080{\textendash}2099 at various heights, as well as soil temperatures at various depths and shade intensities. We also predicted the percentage of green vegetation and the percentage of shade given the angle of the sun. These data were evaluated using several criteria, each of which shed light on a different aspect of value to researchers. The metadata describe the modeling protocol, microclimate calculations, computer programs, and the evaluation process.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
	keywords = {Climate Change, downscaling, extreme events, microclimate, shade, soil temperatures, stochasticity, vegetation, wind speed},
	issn = {1939-9170},
	doi = {10.1002/ecy.1444},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1444},
	author = {Levy, Ofir and Buckley, Lauren B and Keitt, Timothy H and Angilletta, Michael J}
}
@article {ELE:ELE12595,
	title = {Ontogeny constrains phenology: opportunities for activity and reproduction interact to dictate potential phenologies in a changing climate},
	journal = {Ecology Letters},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {n/a{\textendash}n/a},
	abstract = {As global warming has lengthened the active seasons of many species, we need a framework for predicting how advances in phenology shape the life history and the resulting fitness of organisms. Using an individual-based model, we show how warming differently affects annual cycles of development, growth, reproduction and activity in a group of North American lizards. Populations in cold regions can grow and reproduce more when warming lengthens their active season. However, future warming of currently warm regions advances the reproductive season but reduces the survival of embryos and juveniles. Hence, stressful temperatures during summer can offset predicted gains from extended growth seasons and select for lizards that reproduce after the warm summer months. Understanding these cascading effects of climate change may be crucial to predict shifts in the life history and demography of species.},
	keywords = {Biophysical model, Climate Change, embryos, hatchlings, heat events, individual-based model, life cycle, Lizards, phenology},
	issn = {1461-0248},
	doi = {10.1111/ele.12595},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.12595},
	author = {Levy, Ofir and Buckley, Lauren B and Keitt, Timothy H and Angilletta, Michael J}
}
@inbook {Keitt2016,
	title = {Climate change, microbes, and soil carbon cycling},
	booktitle = {Climate Change and Microbial Ecology: Current and Future Trends},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {220},
	publisher = {Caister Academic Press},
	organization = {Caister Academic Press},
	chapter = {7},
	address = {Norwich, UK},
	abstract = {Microbial responses to climate change will partly control the balance of soil carbon storage and loss under future temperature and precipitation conditions. We propose four classes of response mechanisms that can allow for a more general understanding of microbial climate responses. We further explore how a subset of these mechanisms results in microbial responses to climate change using simulation modeling. Specifically, we incorporate soil moisture sensitivity into two current enzyme-driven models of soil carbon cycling and find that moisture has large effects on predictions for soil carbon and microbial pools. Empirical efforts to distinguish among response mechanisms will facilitate our ability to further develop models with improved accuracy.},
	isbn = {978-1-910190-31-9},
	author = {Keitt, TH and Addis, C and Mitchell, D and Salas, A and Hawkes, CV},
	editor = {Marxsen, J and Liebig, J}
}
@article {Behrman2015,
	title = {Spatial land use trade-offs for maintenance of biodiversity, biofuel, and agriculture},
	journal = {Landscape Ecology},
	volume = {30},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {1987{\textendash}1999},
	abstract = {Expansion of bioenergy production is part of a global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change. Dedicated biomass crops will compete with other land uses as most high quality arable land is already used for agriculture, urban development, and biodiversity conservation.},
	issn = {1572-9761},
	doi = {10.1007/s10980-015-0225-1},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10980-015-0225-1},
	author = {Behrman, Kathrine D and Juenger, Thomas E and Kiniry, James R and Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {Hawkes2015,
	title = {Resilience vs. historical contingency in microbial responses to environmental change},
	journal = {Ecology Letters},
	volume = {18},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {612{\textendash}625},
	issn = {1461023X},
	doi = {10.1111/ele.12451},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/ele.12451},
	author = {Hawkes, Christine V and Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {Levy2015,
	title = {Resolving the life cycle alters expected impacts of climate change},
	journal = {Proc R Soc B},
	volume = {282},
	year = {2015},
	pages = {20150837{\textendash}},
	abstract = {Recent models predict contrasting impacts of climate change on tropical and temperate species, but these models ignore how environmental stress and organismal tolerance change during the life cycle. For example, geographical ranges and extinction risks have been inferred from thermal constraints on activity during the adult stage. Yet, most animals pass through a sessile embryonic stage before reaching adulthood, making them more susceptible to warming climates than current models would suggest. By projecting microclimates at high spatio-temporal resolution and measuring thermal tolerances of embryos, we developed a life cycle model of population dynamics for North American lizards. Our analyses show that previous models dramatically underestimate the demographic impacts of climate change. A predicted loss of fitness in 2\% of the USA by 2100 became 35\% when considering embryonic performance in response to hourly fluctuations in soil temperature. Most lethal events would have been overlooked if we had ignored thermal stress during embryonic development or had averaged temperatures over time. Therefore, accurate forecasts require detailed knowledge of environmental conditions and thermal tolerances throughout the life cycle.},
	doi = {10.1098/rspb.2015.0837},
	url = {http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/282/1813/20150837},
	author = {Levy, Ofir and Buckley, Lauren B and Keitt, Timothy H and Smith, Colton D. and Boateng, Kwasi O. and Kumar, Davina S. and Angilletta, Michael J., Jr}
}
@article {Levy2014,
	title = {Approaches to advance scientific understanding of macrosystems ecology},
	journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment},
	volume = {12},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {15{\textendash}23},
	publisher = {Ecological Society of America},
	abstract = {The emergence of macrosystems ecology (MSE), which focuses on regional- to continental-scale ecological patterns and processes, builds upon a history of long-term and broad-scale studies in ecology. Scientists face the difficulty of integrating the many elements that make up macrosystems, which consist of hierarchical processes at interacting spatial and temporal scales. Researchers must also identify the most relevant scales and variables to be considered, the required data resources, and the appropriate study design to provide the proper inferences. The large volumes of multi-thematic data often associated with macrosystem studies typically require validation, standardization, and assimilation. Finally, analytical approaches need to describe how cross-scale and hierarchical dynamics and interactions relate to macroscale phenomena. Here, we elaborate on some key methodological challenges of MSE research and discuss existing and novel approaches to meet them.},
	issn = {1540-9295},
	doi = {10.1890/130019},
	url = {http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/130019},
	author = {Levy, Ofir and Ball, Becky A and Bond-Lamberty, Ben and Cheruvelil, Kendra S and Finley, Andrew O and Lottig, Noah R and Punyasena, Surangi W and Xiao, Jingfeng and Zhou, Jizhong and Buckley, Lauren B and Filstrup, Christopher T and Keitt, Tim H and Kellner, James R and Knapp, Alan K and Richardson, Andrew D and Tcheng, David and Toomey, Michael and Vargas, Rodrigo and Voordeckers, James W and Wagner, Tyler and Williams, John W}
}
@article {Heffernan2014,
	title = {Macrosystems ecology: understanding ecological patterns and processes at continental scales},
	journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment},
	volume = {12},
	year = {2014},
	month = {feb},
	pages = {5{\textendash}14},
	publisher = {Ecological Society of America},
	abstract = {Macrosystems ecology is the study of diverse ecological phenomena at the scale of regions to continents and their interactions with phenomena at other scales. This emerging subdiscipline addresses ecological questions and environmental problems at these broad scales. Here, we describe this new field, show how it relates to modern ecological study, and highlight opportunities that stem from taking a macrosystems perspective. We present a hierarchical framework for investigating macrosystems at any level of ecological organization and in relation to broader and finer scales. Building on well-established theory and concepts from other subdisciplines of ecology, we identify feedbacks, linkages among distant regions, and interactions that cross scales of space and time as the most likely sources of unexpected and novel behaviors in macrosystems. We present three examples that highlight the importance of this multiscaled systems perspective for understanding the ecology of regions to continents.},
	isbn = {i1540-9295-12-1-5},
	issn = {1540-9295},
	doi = {10.1890/130017},
	url = {http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/130017},
	author = {Heffernan, James B and Soranno, Patricia A and Angilletta, Michael J and Buckley, Lauren B and Gruner, Daniel S and Keitt, Tim H and Kellner, James R and Kominoski, John S and Rocha, Adrian V and Xiao, Jingfeng and Harms, Tamara K and Goring, Simon J and Koenig, Lauren E and McDowell, William H and Powell, Heather and Richardson, Andrew D and Stow, Craig A and Vargas, Rodrigo and Weathers, Kathleen C}
}
@article {Behrman2014,
	title = {Modeling Differential Growth in Switchgrass Cultivars Across the Central and Southern Great Plains},
	journal = {BioEnergy Research},
	volume = {7},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {1165{\textendash}1173},
	issn = {1939-1234},
	doi = {10.1007/s12155-014-9450-8},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12155-014-9450-8},
	author = {Behrman, Kathrine D and Keitt, Timothy H and Kiniry, James R}
}
@article {Belaire2014,
	title = {Predicting and Mapping Potential Whooping Crane Stopover Habitat to Guide Site Selection for Wind Energy Projects},
	journal = {Conservation Biology},
	volume = {28},
	year = {2014},
	month = {apr},
	pages = {541{\textendash}550},
	abstract = {Migratory stopover habitats are often not part of planning for conservation or new development projects. We identified potential stopover habitats within an avian migratory flyway and demonstrated how this information can guide the site-selection process for new development. We used the random forests modeling approach to map the distribution of predicted stopover habitat for the Whooping Crane (Grus americana), an endangered species whose migratory flyway overlaps with an area where wind energy development is expected to become increasingly important. We then used this information to identify areas for potential wind power development in a U.S. state within the flyway (Nebraska) that minimize conflicts between Whooping Crane stopover habitat and the development of clean, renewable energy sources. Up to 54\% of our study area was predicted to be unsuitable as Whooping Crane stopover habitat and could be considered relatively low risk for conflicts between Whooping Cranes and wind energy development. We suggest that this type of analysis be incorporated into the habitat conservation planning process in areas where incidental take permits are being considered for Whooping Cranes or other species of concern. Field surveys should always be conducted prior to construction to verify model predictions and understand baseline conditions.},
	keywords = {avian migration, crane, en route bird conservation, grus americana, random forests, site selection, stopover, whooping, wind farm},
	issn = {08888892},
	doi = {10.1111/cobi.12199},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12199/abstract},
	author = {Belaire, J Amy and Kreakie, Betty J and Keitt, Timothy and Minor, Emily}
}
@article {lasky2013role,
	title = {The role of functional traits and individual variation in the co-occurrence of Ficus species},
	journal = {Ecology},
	volume = {95},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {978{\textendash}990},
	publisher = {ap},
	issn = {0012-9658},
	doi = {10.1890/13-0437.1},
	url = {http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/13-0437.1},
	author = {Lasky, Jesse R and Yang, Jie and Zhang, Guocheng and Cao, Min and Tang, Yong and Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {2013,
	title = {Reserve Size and Fragmentation Alter Community Assembly, Diversity, and Dynamics.},
	journal = {The American Naturalist},
	volume = {182},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {pp. E142-E160},
	publisher = {The University of Chicago Press for The American Society of Naturalists},
	abstract = {Abstract Researchers have disputed whether a single large habitat reserve will support more species than many small reserves. However, relatively little is known from a theoretical perspective about how reserve size affects competitive communities structured by spatial abiotic gradients. We investigate how reserve size affects theoretical communities whose assembly is governed by dispersal limitation, abiotic niche differentiation, and source-sink dynamics. Simulations were conducted with varying scales of dispersal across landscapes with variable environmental spatial autocorrelation. Landscapes were inhabited by simulated trees with seedling and adult stages. For a fixed total area in reserves, we found that small reserve systems increased the distance between environments dominated by different species, diminishing the effects of source-sink dynamics. As reserve size decreased, environmental limitations to community assembly became stronger, α species richness decreased, and γ richness increased. When dispersal occurred across short distances, a large reserve strategy caused greater stochastic community variation, greater α richness, and lower γ richness than in small reserve systems. We found that reserve size variation trades off between preserving different aspects of natural communities, including α diversity versus γ diversity. Optimal reserve size will depend on the importance of source-sink dynamics and the value placed on different characteristics of natural communities. Anthropogenic changes to the size and separation of remnant habitats can have far-reaching effects on community structure and assembly.},
	issn = {00030147},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/673205},
	author = {Lasky, Jesse R and Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@conference {levy2013modeling,
	title = {Modeling the costs of thermoregulation in lizards: the interplay between competition, climate and vegetation cover in Sceloporus undulatus},
	booktitle = {Integrative and Comparative Biology},
	volume = {53},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {E126{\textendash}{\textendash}E126},
	publisher = {OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC JOURNALS DEPT, 2001 EVANS RD, CARY, NC 27513 USA},
	organization = {OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC JOURNALS DEPT, 2001 EVANS RD, CARY, NC 27513 USA},
	url = {http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en\&btnG=Search\&q=intitle:Modeling+the+costs+of+thermoregulation+in+lizards:+the+interplay+between+competition,+climate+and+vegetation+cover+in+Sceloporus+undulatus\#0},
	author = {Levy, O and Buckley, LB B and Keitt, TH and Angilletta, M J}
}
@article {kiniryperennial,
	title = {Perennial Biomass Grasses and the Mason{\textendash}Dixon Line: Comparative Productivity across Latitudes in the Southern Great Plains},
	journal = {BioEnergy Research},
	volume = {6},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {276{\textendash}291},
	publisher = {Springer New York},
	issn = {1939-1234},
	doi = {10.1007/s12155-012-9254-7},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12155-012-9254-7 http://www.springerlink.com/index/10.1007/s12155-012-9254-7 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12155-012-9254-7},
	author = {Kiniry, J. R. and Anderson, LC and Johnson, M-VV and Behrman, KD and Brakie, M. and Burner, D. and Cordsiemon, RL and Fay, P. a. and Fritschi, FB and Houx, J. H. and Hawkes, C. and Juenger, T. and Kaiser, J. and Keitt, TH and Lloyd-Reilley, J. and Maher, S. and Raper, R. and Scott, A. and Shadow, A. and West, C. and Wu, Y. and Zibilske, L.}
}
@article {behrmanspatial,
	title = {Spatial forecasting of switchgrass productivity under current and future climate change scenarios},
	journal = {Ecological Applications},
	volume = {23},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {73{\textendash}85},
	publisher = {ap},
	keywords = {almanac model, biofuel, biomass, environmental change, panicum virgatum, precipitation, switchgrass, Temperature, United States},
	issn = {1051-0761},
	doi = {10.1890/12-0436.1},
	url = {http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/12-0436.1 http://www.esajournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1890/12-0436.1 http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/12-0436.1},
	author = {Behrman, Kathrine D and Kiniry, James R and Winchell, Michael and Juenger, Thomas E and Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {JEC:JEC12065,
	title = {Trait-mediated effects of environmental filtering on tree community dynamics},
	journal = {Journal of Ecology},
	volume = {101},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {722{\textendash}733},
	abstract = {* Individual performance is a function of an individual{\textquoteright}s traits and its environment. This function, known as an environmental filter, varies in space and affects community composition. However, filters are poorly characterized because dispersal patterns can obscure environmental effects, and few studies utilize longitudinal data linking individual performance to environment. * We model the effects of environmental filters on demographic rates of nearly all tree species (99) in a 25-ha subtropical rain forest plot. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model of environmental filtering, drawing inspiration from classic studies of intraspecific natural selection. We characterize the specific environmental gradients and trait axes most important in filtering of demographic rates across species. * We found that stronger filtering along a given trait axis corresponded to less spatial variation in the value of favoured traits. * Environmental gradients associated with filtering were different for growth versus survivorship. * Species maximum height was under the strongest filtering for growth, with shorter species favoured on convex ridges. Shorter stature species may be favoured on ridges because trees on ridges experience higher wind damage and lower soil moisture. * Wood density filtering had the strongest effects on survival. Steep slopes and high available P in the soil favoured species with low-density wood. Such sites may be favourable for fast-growing species that exploit resource-rich environments. * Synthesis: We characterized trait-mediated environmental filters that may underlie spatial niche differentiation and life-history trade-offs, which can promote species coexistence. Filtering along trait axes with the strongest effects on local community composition, that is, traits with the strongest filtering, may necessarily have a weaker potential to promote species coexistence across the plot. The weak spatial variation in filters with strong effects on demography may result from long-term processes affecting the species pool that favour habitat generalist strategies.},
	keywords = {community assembly, functional traits, Fushan Taiwan, landscape, plant population and community dynamics, topography},
	issn = {00220477},
	doi = {10.1111/1365-2745.12065},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2745.12065/full http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/1365-2745.12065 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12065},
	author = {Lasky, Jesse R and Sun, I-Fang and Su, Sheng-Hsin and Chen, Zueng-Sang and Keitt, Timothy H},
	editor = {Canham, Charles}
}
@article {pinto2012loracs,
	title = {LORACS: JAVA software for modeling landscape connectivity and matrix permeability},
	journal = {Ecography},
	volume = {35},
	year = {2012},
	month = {may},
	pages = {388{\textendash}392},
	publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
	issn = {09067590},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0587.2012.07168.x},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2012.07168.x},
	author = {Pinto, Naiara and Keitt, Timothy H and Wainright, Michael}
}
@booklet {Keitt2012,
	title = {Meshpoly},
	year = {2012},
	url = {http://bitbucket.org/keittlab/meshpoly},
	author = {Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {Lasky2012a,
	title = {Characterizing genomic variation of Arabidopsis thaliana : the roles of geography and climate},
	journal = {Molecular Ecology},
	volume = {21},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {5512{\textendash}5529},
	abstract = {Arabidopsis thaliana inhabits diverse climates and exhibits varied phenology across its range. Although A. thaliana is an extremely well-studied model species, the relationship between geography, growing season climate and its genetic variation is poorly characterized. We used redundancy analysis (RDA) to quantify the association of genomic variation [214 051 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)] with geography and climate among 1003 accessions collected from 447 locations in Eurasia. We identified climate variables most correlated with genomic variation, which may be important selective gradients related to local adaptation across the species range. Climate variation among sites of origin explained slightly more genomic variation than geographical distance. Large-scale spatial gradients and early spring temperatures explained the most genomic variation, while growing season and summer conditions explained the most after controlling for spatial structure. SNP variation in Scandinavia showed the greatest climate structure among regions, possibly because of relatively consistent phenology and life history of populations in this region. Climate variation explained more variation among nonsynonymous SNPs than expected by chance, suggesting that much of the climatic structure of SNP correlations is due to changes in coding sequence that may underlie local adaptation.},
	keywords = {Adaptation, Arabidopsis, Arabidopsis: genetics, Climate, Genetic, Genetic Variation, Genome, Geography, Models, Physiological, Physiological: genetics, Plant, Polymorphism, Seasons, Single Nucleotide, Temperature},
	issn = {09621083},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1365-294X.2012.05709.x},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-294X.2012.05709.x/full http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22857709 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1365-294X.2012.05709.x},
	author = {Lasky, Jesse R and Des Marais, David L and McKay, John K and Richards, James H and Juenger, Thomas E and Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {Lasky2012,
	title = {The Effect of Spatial Structure of Pasture Tree Cover on Avian Frugivores in Eastern Amazonia},
	journal = {Biotropica},
	volume = {44},
	year = {2012},
	month = {jul},
	pages = {489{\textendash}497},
	keywords = {7 pasture, agroecosystems, average nearest neighbor, bird movement, brazil, distance-sampling, landscape structure, par{\'a}, Seed Dispersal, thraupidae, tropical, tyrannidae},
	issn = {00063606},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1744-7429.2012.00857.x},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1744-7429.2012.00857.x http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1744-7429.2012.00857.x/full},
	author = {Lasky, Jesse R and Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {kreakie2012enhanced,
	title = {Enhanced Migratory Waterfowl Distribution Modeling by Inclusion of Depth to Water Table Data},
	journal = {PLoS ONE},
	volume = {7},
	year = {2012},
	month = {jan},
	pages = {e30142},
	publisher = {Public Library of Science},
	abstract = {In addition to being used as a tool for ecological understanding, management and conservation of migratory waterfowl rely heavily on distribution models; yet these models have poor accuracy when compared to models of other bird groups. The goal of this study is to offer methods to enhance our ability to accurately model the spatial distributions of six migratory waterfowl species. This goal is accomplished by creating models based on species-specific annual cycles and introducing a depth to water table (DWT) data set. The DWT data set, a wetland proxy, is a simulated long-term measure of the point either at or below the surface where climate and geological/topographic water fluxes balance. For species occurrences, the USGS{\textquoteright} banding bird data for six relatively common species was used. Distribution models are constructed using Random Forest and MaxEnt. Random Forest classification of habitat and non-habitat provided a measure of DWT variable importance, which indicated that DWT is as important, and often more important, to model accuracy as temperature, precipitation, elevation, and an alternative wetland measure. MaxEnt models that included DWT in addition to traditional predictor variables had a considerable increase in classification accuracy. Also, MaxEnt models created with DWT often had higher accuracy when compared with models created with an alternative measure of wetland habitat. By comparing maps of predicted probability of occurrence and response curves, it is possible to explore how different species respond to water table depth and how a species responds in different seasons. The results of this analysis also illustrate that, as expected, all waterfowl species are tightly affiliated with shallow water table habitat. However, this study illustrates that the intensity of affiliation is not constant between seasons for a species, nor is it consistent between species.},
	keywords = {Animal Migration, Animals, Anseriformes, Anseriformes: classification, Anseriformes: physiology, Biological, Climate, Ecosystem, Environmental Monitoring, Environmental Monitoring: methods, Environmental Monitoring: statistics \& numerical d, Female, Geography, Groundwater, Male, Models, Population Dynamics, Reproduction, Seasons, Species Specificity, United States, Wetlands},
	issn = {1932-6203},
	doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0030142},
	url = {http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0030142},
	author = {Kreakie, Betty J and Fan, Ying and Keitt, Timothy H},
	editor = {Steinke, Dirk}
}
@article {Kreakie2012,
	title = {Integration of distance, direction and habitat into a predictive migratory movement model for blue-winged teal (Anas discors)},
	journal = {Ecological Modelling},
	volume = {224},
	year = {2012},
	month = {jan},
	pages = {25{\textendash}32},
	abstract = {Historically, the migration of birds has been poorly understood in comparison to other life stages during the annual cycle. The goal of our research is to present a novel approach to predict the migratory movement of birds. Using a blue-winged teal case study, our process incorporates not only constraints on habitat (temperature, precipitation, elevation, and depth to water table), but also approximates the likely bearing and distance traveled from a starting location. The method allows for movement predictions to be made from unsampled areas across large spatial scales. We used USGS{\textquoteright} Bird Banding Laboratory database as the source of banding and recovery locations. We used recovery locations from banding sites with multiple within-30-day recoveries were used to build core maximum entropy models. Because the core models encompass information regarding likely habitat, distance, and bearing, we used core models to project (or forecast) probability of movement from starting locations that lacked sufficient data for independent predictions. The final model for an unsampled area was based on an inverse-distance weighted averaged prediction from the three nearest core models. To illustrate this approach, three unsampled locations were selected to probabilistically predict where migratory blue-wing teals would stopover. These locations, despite having little or none data, are assumed to have populations. For the blue-winged teal case study, 104 suitable locations were identified to generate core models. These locations ranged from 20 to 228 within-30-day recoveries, and all core models had AUC scores greater than 0.80. We can infer based on model performance assessment, that our novel approach to predicting migratory movement is well-grounded and provides a reasonable approximation of migratory movement.},
	keywords = {bearing, blue-winged teal, distance, maximum entropy, migration, predictive movement},
	issn = {03043800},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.10.019},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.10.019 http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0304380011005047},
	author = {Kreakie, Betty J and Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {keitt2012productivity,
	title = {Productivity, nutrient imbalance and fragility in coupled producer\&ndash;decomposer systems},
	journal = {Ecological Modelling},
	volume = {245},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {12{\textendash}18},
	publisher = {Elsevier},
	abstract = {Ecosystem development is mediated by coupled synthesis{\textendash}decomposition cycles that capture, store and release energy necessary for maintenance and growth. I present a minimal ecosystem model with explicit energy and matter conservation. Energy is captured and stored via synthesis and release through decomposition. This energy is used for biomass production and maintenance. I examine materially closed systems where growth is limited by nutrient availability. I present two key findings. First, maximum biomass production does not occur under conditions of equal nutrient concentrations. Instead, production is maximized when the initial environmental concentration of the energy carrying substrate is increased. Second, the system is characterized by an abrupt collapse when the concentration of the energy carrying substrate is increased above a threshold. This model indicates that in the region of maximum biomass production, ecosystems are fragile rather than resilient.},
	keywords = {decomposition, ecosystem model, energy, fragility, nutrient imbalance, resilience, synthesis},
	issn = {03043800},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.05.020},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.05.020 http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0304380012002414},
	author = {Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {Lasky2011,
	title = {Conservation biogeography of the US-Mexico border: a transcontinental risk assessment of barriers to animal dispersal},
	journal = {Diversity and Distributions},
	volume = {17},
	year = {2011},
	month = {jul},
	pages = {673{\textendash}687},
	issn = {13669516},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00765.x},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2011.00765.x},
	author = {Lasky, Jesse R and Jetz, Walter and Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {Avnery2011,
	title = {Human versus climatic influences on late-Holocene fire regimes in southwestern Nicaragua},
	journal = {The Holocene},
	volume = {21},
	year = {2011},
	pages = {699{\textendash}706},
	publisher = {SAGE Publications},
	keywords = {biomass burning, late holocene, nicaragua, paleoecology, pre-hispanic land use, wavelet analysis},
	issn = {0959-6836},
	doi = {10.1177/0959683610391314},
	url = {http://hol.sagepub.com/cgi/doi/10.1177/0959683610391314},
	author = {Avnery, Shiri and Dull, Robert A and Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {Noble2010,
	title = {A sampling theory for asymmetric communities},
	journal = {Journal of Theoretical Biology},
	volume = {273},
	year = {2011},
	month = {mar},
	pages = {1{\textendash}14},
	publisher = {Elsevier},
	abstract = {We introduce the first analytical model of asymmetric community dynamics to yield Hubbell{\textquoteright}s neutral theory in the limit of functional equivalence among all species. Our focus centers on an asymmetric extension of Hubbell{\textquoteright}s local community dynamics, while an analogous extension of Hubbell{\textquoteright}s metacommunity dynamics is deferred to an appendix. We find that mass-effects may facilitate coexistence in asymmetric local communities and generate unimodal species abundance distributions indistinguishable from those of symmetric communities. Multiple modes, however, only arise from asymmetric processes and provide a strong indication of non-neutral dynamics. Although the stationary distributions of fully asymmetric communities must be calculated numerically, we derive the first analytical sampling distributions for nearly neutral local communities and metacommunities where symmetry is broken by a single species distinct from all others in ecological fitness and dispersal ability. Novel asymptotic expansions of hypergeometric functions are provided to make evaluations of each distribution tractable for large communities. Employing these results in a Bayesian analysis may provide a novel statistical test to assess the consistency of species abundance data with the neutral hypothesis.},
	keywords = {Biological, Ecosystem, Models, Populations and Evolution, Sampling Studies, Species Specificity},
	issn = {00225193},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.12.021},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.12.021 http://arxiv.org/abs/1010.2829 http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0022519310006764},
	author = {Noble, Andrew E and Temme, Nico M and Fagan, William F and Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {ISI:000273149300007,
	title = {Abundance of Panamanian dry-forest birds along gradients of forest cover at multiple scales},
	journal = {Journal of Tropical Ecology},
	volume = {26},
	year = {2010},
	month = {jan},
	pages = {67},
	publisher = {CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS},
	type = {Article},
	address = {32 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK, NY 10013-2473 USA},
	abstract = {Community structure and species{\textquoteright} abundances may be strongly correlated to patterns of forest cover, although such patterns are poorly known for tropical dry-forest birds, especially for those in Panamanian dry forests. Birds were distance-sampled during point counts in five dry-forest fragments in Panama. Distance from point count to forest, edge and forest coverage at three spatial scales (500, 1000 and 2000-m radius) were compared as covariate predictors of the abundance of avian species and guilds. Each covariate was selected in at least two models of species or guild abundance. Abundance patterns were consistent with previously reported habitat associations for only two of seven open-habitat or forest-preferring species that. showed forest cover-abundance relationships. Null models best described the abundance of all forest species and the subset of uncommon forest species. Thus many of these species appear insensitive to the forest-cover gradients studied. Total abundance of open-habitat-preferring species increased in dry forests with increasing forest coverage within 500 m, suggesting that the relationship between their abundance and vegetation structure are spatial-scale and habitat. dependent. Nectarivores had lower abundance as forest cover within 1000 m increased, supporting previous claims that this group is tolerant of forest edges.},
	keywords = {abundance modelling, edge effects, feeding guild},
	issn = {0266-4674},
	doi = {10.1017/S0266467409990368},
	url = {http://www.journals.cambridge.org/abstract\_S0266467409990368},
	author = {Lasky, Jesse R and Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@booklet {keitt2010rgdal,
	title = {rgdal: bindings for the Geospatial Data Abstraction Library},
	year = {2010},
	publisher = {R package version 0.6-27.< http://CRAN. R-project. org/package= rgdal},
	url = {http://scholar.google.com/citations?view\_op=view\_citation\&hl=en\&user=B4xRvYkAAAAJ\&pagesize=100\&sortby=pubdate\&citation\_for\_view=B4xRvYkAAAAJ:Zph67rFs4hoC},
	author = {Keitt, Timothy H and Bivand, Roger and Pebesma, Edzer and Rowlingson, Barry}
}
@article {Economo2010,
	title = {Network isolation and local diversity in neutral metacommunities},
	journal = {Oikos},
	volume = {119},
	year = {2010},
	month = {jul},
	pages = {1355{\textendash}1363},
	publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
	issn = {00301299},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18272.x},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18272.x},
	author = {Economo, Evan P and Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {ISI:000269075200017,
	title = {Habitat conversion, extinction thresholds, and pollination services in agroecosystems},
	journal = {Ecological Applications},
	volume = {19},
	year = {2009},
	pages = {1561{\textendash}1573},
	publisher = {ECOLOGICAL SOC AMER},
	type = {Article},
	address = {1990 M STREET NW, STE 700, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 USA},
	abstract = {Parallel declines of wild pollinators and pollinator-dependent plants have raised alarms over the loss of pollination services in agroecosystems. A spatially explicit approach is needed to develop specific recommendations regarding the design of agricultural landscapes to sustain wild pollinator communities and the services they provide. I modeled pollination services in agroecosystems using a pair of models: a stochastic individual-based simulation model of wild pollinators, pollinator-dependent plants, and crop pollination; and a set of coupled difference equations designed to capture the nonspatial component of the simulation model. Five spatially explicit models of habitat conversion to crops were simulated, and results for pollination services were compared. Mean-field behavior of the simulation model was in good agreement with analysis of the difference equations. A major feature of the models was the presence of a cusp leading to loss of stability and extinction of pollinators and pollinator-dependent plants beyond a critical amount of habitat loss. The addition of pollen obtained from crop visitation caused a breakdown of the cusp preventing extinction of pollinators, but not of wild pollinator-dependent plants. Spatially restricted foraging and dispersal also altered model outcomes relative to mean-field predictions, in some cases causing extinction under parameter settings that would otherwise lead to persistence. Different patterns of habitat conversion to crops resulted in different levels of pollination services. Most interesting was the finding that optimal pollination services occurred when the size of remnant habitat patches was equal to half the mean foraging and dispersal distance of pollinators and the spacing between remnant patches was equal to the mean foraging and dispersal distance. Conservation of wild pollinators and pollinator-dependent plants in agroecosystems requires careful attention to thresholds in habitat conversion and spatial pattern and scale of remnant habitats. Maximization of pollination services was generally incompatible with conservation of wild pollinator-dependent plants. My prediction is that pollination services will be maximized by providing islands of nesting habitat where interisland distance matches mean foraging distances of wild pollinators.},
	keywords = {agroecosystems, allee effect, conservation, conversion, differ, difference equations, ecosystem services, habitat, habitat fragmentation, landscape model, mutualism, pollination services},
	issn = {1051-0761},
	doi = {10.1890/08-0117.1},
	url = {http://eco.confex.com/eco/2007/techprogram/P8074.HTM http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/08-0117.1},
	author = {Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {ISI:000267029700001,
	title = {The Role of Demography and Markets in Determining Deforestation Rates Near Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar},
	journal = {PLoS ONE},
	volume = {4},
	year = {2009},
	month = {jun},
	pages = {e5783},
	publisher = {PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE},
	type = {Article},
	address = {185 BERRY ST, STE 1300, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94107 USA},
	abstract = {The highland forests of Madagascar are home to some of the world{\textquoteright}s most unique and diverse flora and fauna and to some of its poorest people. This juxtaposition of poverty and biodiversity is continually reinforced by rapid population growth, which results in increasing pressure on the remaining forest habitat in the highland region, and the biodiversity therein. Here we derive a mathematical expression for the subsistence of households to assess the role of markets and household demography on deforestation near Ranomafana National Park. In villages closest to urban rice markets, households were likely to clear less land than our model predicted, presumably because they were purchasing food at market. This effect was offset by the large number of migrant households who cleared significantly more land between 1989-2003 than did residents throughout the region. Deforestation by migrant households typically occurred after a mean time lag of 9 years. Analyses suggest that while local conservation efforts in Madagascar have been successful at reducing the footprint of individual households, large-scale conservation must rely on policies that can reduce the establishment of new households in remaining forested areas.},
	keywords = {Agriculture, Biodiversity, Conservation of Natural Resources, Demography, Ecology, Ecosystem, Environment, Humans, Madagascar, Models, Population Dynamics, Regression Analysis, Theoretical, Trees},
	issn = {1932-6203},
	doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0005783},
	url = {http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=2691994\&tool=pmcentrez\&rendertype=abstract http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0005783},
	author = {Brooks, Christopher P and Holmes, Christopher and Kramer, Karen and Barnett, Barry and Keitt, Timothy H},
	editor = {Chave, Jerome}
}
@article {pinto2009primate,
	title = {South American Primates},
	journal = {South American Primates},
	year = {2009},
	pages = {413{\textendash}431},
	publisher = {Springer New York},
	address = {New York, NY},
	isbn = {978-0-387-78704-6},
	doi = {10.1007/978-0-387-78705-3},
	url = {http://www.springerlink.com/index/10.1007/978-0-387-78705-3 http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-0-387-78705-3},
	author = {Pinto, N and Lasky, J and Bueno, R and Keitt, TH and Galetti, M},
	editor = {Garber, Paul A. and Estrada, Alejandro and Bicca-Marques, J{\'u}lio C{\'e}sar and Heymann, Eckhard W. and Strier, Karen B.}
}
@article {ISI:000262828900009,
	title = {Beyond the least-cost path: evaluating corridor redundancy using a graph-theoretic approach},
	journal = {Landscape Ecology},
	volume = {24},
	year = {2009},
	month = {feb},
	pages = {253{\textendash}266},
	publisher = {SPRINGER},
	type = {Article},
	address = {VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS},
	abstract = {The impact of the landscape matrix on patterns of animal movement and population dynamics has been widely recognized by ecologists. However, few tools are available to model the matrix{\textquoteright}s influence on the length, relative quality, and redundancy of dispersal routes connecting habitat patches. Many GIS software packages can use land use/land cover maps to identify the route of least resistance between two points-the least-cost path. The limitation of this type of analysis is that only a single path is identified, even though alternative paths with comparable costs might exist. In this paper, we implemented two graph theory methods that extend the least-cost path approach: the Conditional Minimum Transit Cost (CMTC) tool and the Multiple Shortest Paths (MSPs) tool. Both methods enable the visualization of multiple dispersal routes that, together, are assumed to form a corridor. We show that corridors containing alternative dispersal routes emerge when favorable habitat is randomly distributed in space. As clusters of favorable habitat start forming, corridors become less redundant and dispersal bottlenecks become visible. Our approach is illustrated using data from a real landscape in the Brazilian Atlantic forest. We explored the effect of small, localized disturbance on dispersal routes linking conservation units. Simulated habitat destruction caused the appearance of alternative dispersal routes, or caused existing corridors to become narrower. These changes were observed even in the absence of significant differences in the length or cost of least-cost paths. Last, we discuss applications to animal movement studies and conservation initiatives.},
	keywords = {{\'a}, {\'a} corridors {\'a}, agroecosystems {\'a} atlantic forest, Atlantic forest, brazil, brazil {\'a} functional connectivity, Functiona, {Agroecosystems},
	issn = {0921-2973},
	doi = {10.1007/s10980-008-9303-y},
	url = {http://www.springerlink.com/index/10.1007/s10980-008-9303-y http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10980-008-9303-y},
	author = {Pinto, Naiara and Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {ISI:000260499700014,
	title = {Scale-dependent responses to forest cover displayed by frugivore bats},
	journal = {Oikos},
	volume = {117},
	year = {2008},
	month = {oct},
	pages = {1725{\textendash}1731},
	publisher = {BLACKWELL PUBLISHING},
	type = {Article},
	address = {9600 GARSINGTON RD, OXFORD OX4 2DQ, OXON, ENGLAND},
	abstract = {Despite vast evidence of species turnover displayed by Neotropical bat communities in response to forest fragmentation, the exact shape of the relationship between fragment area and abundance for individual bat species is still unclear. Bats{\textquoteright} ample variation in diet, morphology, and movement behaviour can potentially influence species{\textquoteright} perception of the landscape. Thus, studies describing fragment area at a single spatial scale may fail to capture the amount of forest available from the perspective of individual bat species. In the present paper, we study the influence of forest cover on bats inhabiting a fragmented forest in Mexico, focusing on some of the most common frugivore species: Artibeus jamaicensis, Carollia spp. (C. brevicauda/C. perspicillata) and Sturnira spp. (S. lilium/S. ludovici). We quantified forest cover at scales ranging from 50 to 2000 m, and measured the influence of forest cover on bat capture success, a surrogate for abundance. The three species displayed positive and significant scale-dependent associations with forest cover. Abundance of A. jamaicensis increased with forest cover measured at scales ranging between 500 and 2000 m, while Carollia spp. responded more strongly to variation in forest cover measured at scales 100-500 m. For Sturnira spp., abundance was a function of presence of creeks near mist-netting sites, and amount of secondary forest present at a 200 m scale. The observed variation in responses to forest cover can be explained in light of interspecific differences in diet, home range, and body size. Our results illustrate a method for measuring the effect of forest fragmentation on mobile species and suggest that changes in abundance in fragmented landscapes emerge from the interaction between species{\textquoteright} traits and landscape structure.},
	issn = {00301299},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0706.2008.16495.x},
	url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2008.16495.x},
	author = {Pinto, Naiara and Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {ISI:000257986200003,
	title = {Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneity Explain Disease Dynamics in a Spatially Explicit Network Model},
	journal = {The American Naturalist},
	volume = {172},
	year = {2008},
	month = {aug},
	pages = {149{\textendash}159},
	publisher = {UNIV CHICAGO PRESS},
	type = {Article},
	address = {1427 E 60TH ST, CHICAGO, IL 60637-2954 USA},
	abstract = {There is an increasing recognition that individual-level spatial and temporal heterogeneity may play an important role in metapopulation dynamics and persistence. In particular, the patterns of contact within and between aggregates (e.g., demes) at different spatial and temporal scales may reveal important mechanisms governing metapopulation dynamics. Using 7 years of data on the interaction between the anther smut fungus (Microbotryum violaceum) and fire pink (Silene virginica), we show how the application of spatially explicit and implicit network models can be used to make accurate predictions of infection dynamics in spatially structured populations. Explicit consideration of both spatial and temporal organization reveals the role of each in spreading risk for both the host and the pathogen. This work suggests that the application of spatially explicit network models can yield important insights into how heterogeneous structure can promote the persistence of species in natural landscapes.},
	keywords = {Algorithms, Biological, Host-Pathogen Interactions, Models, Plant Diseases, Silene, Silene: microbiology, Time Factors, Ustilaginales, Ustilaginales: physiology},
	issn = {0003-0147},
	doi = {10.1086/589451},
	url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18662121 http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/589451},
	author = {Brooks, Christopher P and Antonovics, Janis and Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {McRae2008,
	title = {USING CIRCUIT THEORY TO MODEL CONNECTIVITY IN ECOLOGY, EVOLUTION, AND CONSERVATION},
	journal = {Ecology},
	volume = {89},
	year = {2008},
	month = {oct},
	pages = {2712{\textendash}2724},
	issn = {0012-9658},
	doi = {10.1890/07-1861.1},
	url = {http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/07-1861.1},
	author = {McRae, Brad H and Dickson, Brett G and Keitt, Timothy H and Shah, Viral B}
}
@article {ISI:000261053500024,
	title = {Environmental flucutations induce scale-dependent compensation and increase stability in plankton ecosystems},
	journal = {Ecology},
	volume = {89},
	year = {2008},
	month = {nov},
	pages = {3204{\textendash}3214},
	publisher = {ECOLOGICAL SOC AMER},
	type = {Article},
	address = {1990 M STREET NW, STE 700, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 USA},
	abstract = {The temporal stability of aggregate community and ecosystem properties is influenced by the variability of component populations, the interactions among populations, and the influence of environmental fluctuations on populations. Environmental fluctuations that enhance population variability are generally expected to destabilize community and ecosystem properties, but this will depend on the degree to which populations are synchronized in their dynamics. Here we use seminatural experimental ponds to show that reduced synchrony among zooplankton taxa increases the temporal stability of zooplankton density, abundance, and ecosystem productivity influctuating environments. However, asynchrony only occurs at long timescales (similar to 80-day periods) and under recurring environmental perturbations. At shorter timescales (similar to 10-day periods) and in constant environments, synchronous dynamics dominate. Our findings support recent theory indicating that compensatory dynamics can stabilize communities and ecosystems. They further indicate that environmental fluctuations can enhance the likelihood of long-period asynchrony and thus stabilize community and ecosystem properties despite their short term destabilizing effects.},
	keywords = {compensatory dynamics, ecosystem processes, food w},
	issn = {0012-9658},
	author = {Downing, Amy L and Brown, Bryan L and Perrin, Elizabeth M and Keitt, Timothy H and Leibold, Mathew A}
}
@article {ISI:000257665300038,
	title = {Coherent ecological dynamics induced by large-scale disturbance},
	journal = {Nature},
	volume = {454},
	year = {2008},
	month = {jul},
	pages = {331{\textendash}334},
	publisher = {NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP},
	type = {Article},
	address = {MACMILLAN BUILDING, 4 CRINAN ST, LONDON N1 9XW, ENGLAND},
	abstract = {Aggregate community-level response to disturbance is a principle concern in ecology because post-disturbance dynamics are integral to the ability of ecosystems to maintain function in an uncertain world. Community-level responses to disturbance can be arrayed along a spectrum ranging from synchronous oscillations where all species rise and fall together, to compensatory dynamics where total biomass remains relatively constant despite fluctuations in the densities of individual species. An important recent insight is that patterns of synchrony and compensation can vary with the timescale of analysis and that spectral time series methods can enable detection of coherent dynamics that would otherwise be obscured by opposing patterns occurring at different scales. Here I show that application of wavelet analysis to experimentally manipulated plankton communities reveals strong synchrony after disturbance. The result is paradoxical because it is well established that these communities contain both disturbance-sensitive and disturbance-tolerant species leading to compensation within functional groups. Theory predicts that compensatory substitution of functionally equivalent species should stabilize ecological communities, yet I found at the whole-community level a large increase in seasonal biomass variation. Resolution of the paradox hinges on patterns of seasonality among species. The compensatory shift in community composition after disturbance resulted in a loss of cold-season dominants, which before disturbance had served to stabilize biomass throughout the year. Species dominating the disturbed community peaked coherently during the warm season, explaining the observed synchrony and increase in seasonal biomass variation. These results suggest that theory relating compensatory dynamics to ecological stability needs to consider not only complementarity in species responses to environmental change, but also seasonal complementarity among disturbance-tolerant and disturbance-sensitive species.},
	keywords = {Animals, biomass, Crustacea, Crustacea: physiology, Ecosystem, Fresh Water, Hot Temperature, Hydrogen-Ion Concentration, Plankton, Plankton: physiology, Population Dynamics, Seasons, Time Factors},
	issn = {0028-0836},
	doi = {10.1038/nature06935},
	url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18633416 http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature06935},
	author = {Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {kremen-etal-2007,
	title = {Pollination and other ecosystem services produced by mobile organisms: a conceptual framework for the effects of land-use change},
	journal = {Ecology Letters},
	volume = {10},
	year = {2007},
	month = {apr},
	pages = {299{\textendash}314},
	abstract = {Many ecosystem services are delivered by organisms that depend on habitats that are segregated spatially or temporally from the location where services are provided. Management of mobile organisms contributing to ecosystem services requires consideration not only of the local scale where services are delivered, but also the distribution of resources at the landscape scale, and the foraging ranges and dispersal movements of the mobile agents. We develop a conceptual model for exploring how one such mobile-agent-based ecosystem service (MABES), pollination, is affected by land-use change, and then generalize the model to other MABES. The model includes interactions and feedbacks among policies affecting land use, market forces and the biology of the organisms involved. Animal-mediated pollination contributes to the production of goods of value to humans such as crops; it also bolsters reproduction of wild plants on which other services or service-providing organisms depend. About one-third of crop production depends on animal pollinators, while 60-90\% of plant species require an animal pollinator. The sensitivity of mobile organisms to ecological factors that operate across spatial scales makes the services provided by a given community of mobile agents highly contextual. Services vary, depending on the spatial and temporal distribution of resources surrounding the site, and on biotic interactions occurring locally, such as competition among pollinators for resources, and among plants for pollinators. The value of the resulting goods or services may feed back via market-based forces to influence land-use policies, which in turn influence land management practices that alter local habitat conditions and landscape structure. Developing conceptual models for MABES aids in identifying knowledge gaps, determining research priorities, and targeting interventions that can be applied in an adaptive management context.},
	keywords = {Agricultural, Agricultural: economics, Animals, Bees, Bees: physiology, Biological, Conservation of Natural Resources, Crops, Ecosystem, Models, Plant Physiological Phenomena, Pollen, Public Policy, Reproduction, Reproduction: physiology},
	issn = {1461-023X},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01018.x},
	url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17355569 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01018.x},
	author = {Kremen, Claire and Williams, Neal M and Aizen, Marcelo A and Gemmill-Herren, Barbara and LeBuhn, Gretchen and Minckley, Robert and Packer, Laurence and Potts, Simon G and Roulston, T{\textquoteright}ai and Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf and V{\'a}zquez, Diego P and Winfree, Rachael and Adams, Laurie and Crone, Elizabeth E and Greenleaf, Sarah S and Keitt, Timothy H and Klein, Alexandra-Maria and Regetz, James and Ricketts, Taylor H}
}
@article {keitt2007quantification,
	title = {On the Quantification of Local Variation in Biodiversity Scaling Using Wavelets},
	journal = {Scaling Biodiversity},
	year = {2007},
	pages = {168{\textendash}180},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press, Cambridge},
	author = {Keitt, TH}
}
@article {Economo2008,
	title = {Species diversity in neutral metacommunities: a network approach},
	journal = {Ecology Letters},
	volume = {11},
	year = {2007},
	month = {nov},
	pages = {071117033013001{\textendash}???},
	abstract = {Biologists seek an understanding of the processes underlying spatial biodiversity patterns. Neutral theory links those patterns to dispersal, speciation and community drift. Here, we advance the spatially explicit neutral model by representing the metacommunity as a network of smaller communities. Analytic theory is presented for a set of equilibrium diversity patterns in networks of communities, facilitating the exploration of parameter space not accessible by simulation. We use this theory to evaluate how the basic properties of a metacommunity - connectivity, size, and speciation rate - determine overall metacommunity gamma-diversity, and how that is partitioned into alpha- and beta-components. We find spatial structure can increase gamma-diversity relative to a well-mixed model, even when theta is held constant. The magnitude of deviations from the well-mixed model and the partitioning into alpha- and beta-diversity is related to the ratio of migration and speciation rates. gamma-diversity scales linearly with metacommunity size even as alpha- and beta-diversity scale nonlinearly with size.},
	keywords = {Biodiversity, Biological, Genetic Speciation, Models, Population Density, Population Dynamics},
	issn = {1461-023X},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01126.x},
	url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18021244 http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01126.x},
	author = {Economo, Evan P and Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {Keitt2006,
	title = {DETECTION OF SCALE-SPECIFIC COMMUNITY DYNAMICS USING WAVELETS},
	journal = {Ecology},
	volume = {87},
	year = {2006},
	month = {nov},
	pages = {2895{\textendash}2904},
	abstract = {The response of ecological communities to anthropogenic disturbance is of both scientific and practical interest. Communities where all species respond to disturbance in a similar fashion (synchrony) will exhibit large fluctuations in total biomass and dramatic changes in ecosystem function. Communities where some species increase in abundance while others decrease after disturbance (compensation) can maintain total biomass and ecosystem function in the face of anthropogenic change. We examined dynamics of the Little Rock Lake (Wisconsin, USA) zooplankton community in the context of an experimental pH manipulation conducted in one basin of the lake. A novel application of wavelets was used to partition patterns of synchrony and compensation by time scale. We find interestingly that some time series show both patterns of synchrony and compensation depending on the scale of analysis. Within the unmanipulated basin, we found subtle patterns of synchrony and compensation within the community, largely at a one-year time scale corresponding to seasonal variation. Within the acidified lake basin, dynamics shifted to longer time scales corresponding to the pattern of pH manipulation. Comparisons between pairs of species in different functional groups showed both strong compensatory and synchronous responses to disturbance. The strongest compensatory signal was observed for two species of Daphnia whose life history traits lead to synchrony at annual time scales, but whose differential sensitivity to acidification led to compensation at multiannual time scales. The separation of time scales inherent in the wavelet method greatly facilitated interpretation as patterns resulting from seasonal drivers could be separated from patterns driven by pH manipulation.},
	keywords = {Animals, Biological, Copepoda, Copepoda: physiology, Daphnia, Daphnia: physiology, Ecology, Ecology: methods, Fresh Water, Hydrogen-Ion Concentration, Models, Population Dynamics, Regression Analysis, Seasons, Statistical, Time Factors, Zooplankton, Zooplankton: physiology},
	isbn = {0012-9658},
	issn = {0012-9658},
	doi = {10.1890/0012-9658(2006)87[2895:DOSCDU]2.0.CO;2},
	url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17168033 http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/0012-9658\%282006\%2987\%5B2895\%3ADOSCDU\%5D2.0.CO\%3B2},
	author = {Keitt, Timothy H and Fischer, Janet}
}
@article {ISI:000225578700004,
	title = {The community context of species{\textquoteright} borders: ecological and evolutionary perspectives},
	journal = {OIKOS},
	volume = {108},
	year = {2005},
	month = {jan},
	pages = {28{\textendash}46},
	publisher = {BLACKWELL MUNKSGAARD},
	type = {Review},
	address = {35 NORRE SOGADE, PO BOX 2148, DK-1016 COPENHAGEN, DENMARK},
	abstract = {Species distributional limits may coincide with hard dispersal barriers or physiological thresholds along environmental gradients, but they may also be influenced by species interactions. We explore a number of models of interspecific interactions that lead to (sometimes abrupt) distribution limits in the presence and absence of environmental gradients. We find that gradients in competitive ability can lead to spatial segregation of competitors into distinct ranges, but that spatial movement tends to broaden the region of sympatry between the two species, and that Allee effects tend to sharpen these boundaries. We generalize these simple models to include metapopulation dynamics and other types of interactions including predator-prey and host-parasite interactions. We derive conditions for range limits in each case. We also consider models that include coevolution and gene flow and find that character displacement along environmental gradients can lead to stable parapatric distributions. We conclude that it is essential to consider coevolved species interactions as a potential mechanism limiting species distributions, particularly when barriers to dispersal are weak and environmental gradients are gradual.},
	issn = {0030-1299},
	author = {Case, T J and Holt, R D and McPeek, M A and Keitt, TH}
}
@article {ISI:000227214900237,
	title = {Predictors of local variation in lemur abundance at Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar.},
	journal = {AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL ANTHROPOLOGY},
	year = {2005},
	pages = {122},
	publisher = {WILEY-LISS},
	type = {Meeting Abstract},
	address = {DIV JOHN WILEY \& SONS INC, 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN, NJ 07030 USA},
	issn = {0002-9483},
	author = {Johnson, SE and Wright, PC and Keitt, TH and Kramer, KL and Ratelolahy, FJ and Ravalison and Holmes, CM and Gordon, W and Puyravaud, JP}
}
@article {keitt-2005,
	title = {Scale-specific inference using wavelets},
	journal = {Ecology},
	volume = {86},
	year = {2005},
	pages = {2497{\textendash}2504},
	issn = {0012-9658},
	doi = {10.1890/04-1016},
	url = {http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/04-1016},
	author = {Keitt, Timothy H and Urban, Dean L}
}
@article {ISI:000225578700001,
	title = {Species{\textquoteright} borders: a unifying theme in ecology},
	journal = {OIKOS},
	volume = {108},
	year = {2005},
	month = {jan},
	pages = {3{\textendash}6},
	publisher = {BLACKWELL MUNKSGAARD},
	type = {Article},
	address = {35 NORRE SOGADE, PO BOX 2148, DK-1016 COPENHAGEN, DENMARK},
	abstract = {Biologists have long been fascinated by species{\textquoteright} borders, and with good reason. Understanding the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of species{\textquoteright} borders may prove to be the key that unlocks new understanding across a wide range of biological phenomena. After all, geographic range limits are a point of entry into understanding the ecological niche and threshold responses to environmental change. Elucidating patterns of gene flow to, and returning from, peripheral populations can provide important insights into the nature of adaptation, speciation and coevolution. Species{\textquoteright} borders form natural laboratories for the study of the spatial structure of species interactions. Comparative studies from the center to the margin of species{\textquoteright} ranges allow us to explore species{\textquoteright} demographic responses along gradients of increasing environmental stress. Range dynamics further permit investigation into invasion dynamics and represent bellwethers for a changing climate. This set of papers explores ecological and evolutionary dynamics of species{\textquoteright} borders from diverse empirical and theoretical perspectives.},
	issn = {0030-1299},
	author = {Holt, R D and Keitt, TH}
}
@article {ISI:000225578700002,
	title = {Species{\textquoteright} geographic ranges and distributional limits: pattern analysis and statistical issues},
	journal = {OIKOS},
	volume = {108},
	year = {2005},
	month = {jan},
	pages = {7{\textendash}17},
	publisher = {BLACKWELL MUNKSGAARD},
	type = {Article},
	address = {35 NORRE SOGADE, PO BOX 2148, DK-1016 COPENHAGEN, DENMARK},
	abstract = {With the increasing concern about species conservation, a need exists for quantitaive characterization of species{\textquoteright} geographic range and their borders. In this paper, we survey tools appropriate for the quantification of static spatial patterns related to geographical ranges and their borders. We then build on these static methods to consider the problem of changes in geographic range through time. Methods discussed are illustrated using lark sparrow data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. While there is no such thing as the {\textquoteleft}{\textquoteleft}best\'{\textquoteright}\ or {\textquoteleft}{\textquoteleft}only\'{\textquoteright}\ method to analyze species geographical range and border, we show that a series of methods can be used in sequence to provide complementary and useful quantitative information for species occupancy of range. Indeed, the location of species{\textquoteright} borders estimated at different times can be compared to identify locations where species expand or go locally extinct. The ability to delineate accurately species{\textquoteright} ranges will be useful to conservation biologists, managers and ecologists.},
	issn = {0030-1299},
	author = {Fortin, M J and Keitt, TH and Maurer, BA and Taper, ML and Kaufman, D M and Blackburn, TM}
}
@article {Holt2005,
	title = {Theoretical models of species{\textquoteright} borders: single species approaches},
	journal = {Oikos},
	volume = {108},
	year = {2005},
	month = {jan},
	pages = {18{\textendash}27},
	issn = {00301299},
	doi = {10.1111/j.0030-1299.2005.13147.x},
	url = {http://blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.0030-1299.2005.13147.x http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.0030-1299.2005.13147.x},
	author = {Holt, Robert D and Keitt, Timothy H and Lewis, Mark A and Maurer, Brian A and Taper, Mark L}
}
@inbook {Keitt2003,
	title = {Network theory: an evolving approach to landscape conservation},
	booktitle = {Ecological Modeling for Resource Management},
	year = {2003},
	pages = {125{\textendash}134},
	publisher = {Springer},
	organization = {Springer},
	chapter = {7},
	address = {New York},
	doi = {10.1007/0-387-21563-8\_7},
	url = {http://www.springerlink.com/index/hk577t83483h4138.pdf},
	author = {Keitt, TH},
	editor = {Dale, V H}
}
@article {ISI:000181212800001,
	title = {Prof. Howard T. Odum 1924-2002},
	journal = {ENERGY},
	volume = {28},
	year = {2003},
	month = {mar},
	pages = {293{\textendash}301},
	publisher = {PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD},
	type = {Biographical-Item},
	address = {THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND},
	issn = {0360-5442},
	doi = {10.1016/S0360-5442(02)00177-9},
	author = {Brown, M T and McMahan, E A and Mitsch, W J and Diamond, C and Winasrky, I and Chandler, R and Carstenn, S and McLachlan-Karr, J and Nixon, S and Tilley, D R and Best, G R and Buenfil, A A and Lugo, A E and Ulanowicz, R E and DeBellevue, E and Huang, S L and Brown, S and Smith, W and Zucchetto, J and Pillet, G and Kangas, P and Lagerberg, C and Tennenbaum, S and Rydberg, T and Keitt, T and Ulgiati, S and Pimentel, D and Pritchard, L R and Day, J W and Ortega, E and Robertson, T A and Nordlie, F G and Lior, N and Ohlander, L and Campbell, D E and Delfino, J J and Giannantoni, C and Rodrigues, G S and Jansson, A and Jansson, B O and Knight, R L and Johnson, D and Waide, R B and Murphy, R and Leibowitz, S G and Deister, A D and Swaney, D P and Higgins, J B and Limburg, K E and Swank, W and Martin, J and Howington, T and Armstrong, N E and Hall, C and Bayley, S and Fusaro, B and Peterson, L L and McKellar, H and Burnett, M and Ruttenber, J and McClanahan, T and Comar, V and Kemp, W M and King, R and Kang, D and Braat, L and Brandt-Williams, S and Kiker, C and Goforth, G and Browder, J A and Peet, J and Patten, B C and Doherty, S and Nelson, M}
}
@article {keitt2003spatial,
	title = {Spatial autocorrelation, dispersal and the maintenance of source-sink populations},
	journal = {ECOLOGICAL STUDIES},
	year = {2003},
	pages = {225{\textendash}238},
	publisher = {SPRINGER VERLAG},
	author = {Keitt, TH}
}
@article {ISI:000177814100009,
	title = {Accounting for spatial pattern when modeling organism-environment interactions},
	journal = {Ecography},
	volume = {25},
	year = {2002},
	month = {oct},
	pages = {616{\textendash}625},
	publisher = {BLACKWELL MUNKSGAARD},
	type = {Article},
	address = {35 NORRE SOGADE, PO BOX 2148, DK-1016 COPENHAGEN, DENMARK},
	abstract = {Statistical models of environment-abundance relationships may be influenced by spatial autocorrelation in abundance, environmental variables, or both, Failure to account for spatial autocorrelation can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding both the absolute and relative importance of environmental variables as determinants of abundance. We consider several classes of statistical models that are appropriate for modeling environment-abundance relationships in the presence of spatial autocorrelation, and apply these to three case studies: 1) abundance of voles in relation to habitat characteristics; 2) a plant competition experiment; and 3) abundance of Orbatid mites along environmental gradients. We find that when spatial pattern is accounted for in the modeling process, conclusions about environmental control over abundance can change dramatically. We conclude with five lessons: 1) spatial models are easy to calculate with several of the most common statistical packages; 2) results from spatially-structured models may point to conclusions radically different from those suggested by a spatially independent model; 3) not all spatial autocorrelation in abundances results from spatial population dynamics; it may also result from abundance associations with environmental variables not included in the model; 4) the different spatial models do have different mechanistic interpretations in terms of ecological processes - thus ecological model selection should take primacy over statistical model selection; 5) the conclusions of the different spatial models are typically fairly similar - making any correction is more important than quibbling about which correction to make.},
	issn = {0906-7590},
	author = {Keitt, TH and Bjornstad, O N and Dixon, P M and Citron-Pousty, S}
}
@article {keitt-2002a,
	title = {Scaling in the growth of geographically subdivided populations: invariant patterns from a continent-wide biological survey},
	journal = {Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B},
	volume = {357},
	year = {2002},
	pages = {627{\textendash}633},
	author = {Keitt, TH and Amaral, LAN and Buldyrev, S V and Stanley, HE}
}
@article {keitt-etal-2001,
	title = {Allee Effects, Invasion Pinning, and Species{\textquoteright} Borders},
	journal = {The American Naturalist},
	volume = {157},
	year = {2001},
	pages = {203{\textendash}216},
	author = {Keitt, TH and Lewis, M A and Holt, R D}
}
@article {Urban2001,
	title = {Landscape connectivity: a graph-theoretic perspective},
	journal = {Ecology},
	volume = {82},
	year = {2001},
	pages = {1205{\textendash}1218},
	url = {http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/0012-9658(2001)082[1205:LCAGTP]2.0.CO;2},
	author = {Urban, D and Keitt, T}
}
@article {kendall-etal-2000,
	title = {Dispersal, environmental correlation, and spatial synchrony in population dynamics},
	journal = {The American Naturalist},
	volume = {155},
	year = {2000},
	pages = {628{\textendash}636},
	author = {Kendall, B E and Bjornstad, O N and Bascompte, J and Keitt, TH and Fagan, W F}
}
@article {Bunn2000,
	title = {Landscape connectivity: A conservation application of graph theory},
	journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},
	volume = {59},
	year = {2000},
	pages = {265{\textendash}278},
	issn = {03014797},
	doi = {10.1006/jema.2000.0373},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301479700903736},
	author = {Bunn, A and Urban, Dean L and Keitt, TH}
}
@article {STANLEY2000,
	title = {Scale invariance and universality: organizing principles in complex systems},
	journal = {Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications},
	volume = {281},
	year = {2000},
	pages = {60{\textendash}68},
	issn = {03784371},
	doi = {10.1016/S0378-4371(00)00195-3},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0378437100001953},
	author = {STANLEY, H and AMARAL, L and Gopikrishnan, P and IVANOV, P and Keitt, T and Plerou, V}
}
@article {Keitt2000,
	title = {Spectral representation of neutral landscapes},
	journal = {Landscape Ecology},
	volume = {15},
	year = {2000},
	pages = {479{\textendash}494},
	doi = {10.1023/A:1008193015770},
	url = {http://www.springerlink.com/index/R02410Q8473064VJ.pdf},
	author = {Keitt, TH}
}
@article {Holt2000,
	title = {Alternative causes for range limits: a metapopulation perspective},
	journal = {Ecology Letters},
	volume = {3},
	year = {2000},
	pages = {41{\textendash}47},
	issn = {1461-023X},
	doi = {10.1046/j.1461-0248.2000.00116.x},
	url = {http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/links/doi/10.1046/j.1461-0248.2000.00116.x},
	author = {Holt, R D and Keitt, TH}
}
@article {Micheli1999,
	title = {The dual nature of community variability},
	journal = {Oikos},
	volume = {85},
	year = {1999},
	pages = {161{\textendash}{\textendash}169},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/3546802},
	author = {Micheli, F. and Cottingham, K. L. and Bascompte, J and Bjornstad, O N and Eckert, G. L. and Fischer, J. M. and Keitt, TH and Kendall, B E and Klug, J. L. and Rusak, J. A.}
}
@article {keitt-1998,
	title = {Dynamics of North American breeding bird populations},
	journal = {Nature},
	volume = {393},
	year = {1998},
	pages = {257{\textendash}260},
	url = {http://www.keittlab.org/~tkeitt/papers/keitt-stanley-1998.pdf},
	author = {Keitt, TH Timothy H and Stanley, HE}
}
@article {ISI:A1997YG56200004,
	title = {Stability and complexity on a lattice: coexistence of species in an individual-based food web model},
	journal = {ECOLOGICAL MODELLING},
	volume = {102},
	year = {1997},
	month = {oct},
	pages = {243{\textendash}258},
	publisher = {ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV},
	type = {Article},
	address = {PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS},
	abstract = {Theoretical studies of the stability of food webs have generally not incorporated space as a contingency affecting coexistence of species. Here, I considered the importance of spatial heterogeneity on the stability of an individual-based food web model. Individual agents diffused on a lattice of cells and interacted according to a set of probabilistic interaction coefficients. Simulations were run on both uniform and non-uniform lattices. The model had two modes: 1. a mean-field mode with global interactions, and 2. a spatially localized mode in which species interacted within local neighborhoods. Equilibrium number of species were compared among different simulations varying web connectance, interaction strength, and lattice heterogeneity. Local interactions resulted in more species rich webs, indicating greater stability. The addition of spatial heterogeneity to the lattice further altered relationships among species richness, web connectance, and interaction strength, and increased coexistence among species. The results did not support the stability criterion derived by May. However, an inverse relationship between web connectance and species richness was observed suggesting that the product of connectance and species richness may govern the stability of real, finite webs. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.},
	keywords = {comple, food web, spatial heterogeneity, stability},
	issn = {0304-3800},
	author = {Keitt, TH}
}
@article {keitt1997population,
	title = {Population dynamics in ecological space and time},
	journal = {Complexity},
	volume = {3},
	year = {1997},
	pages = {58},
	publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons, Inc.},
	author = {Keitt, Timothy H}
}
@article {keitt-1997,
	title = {Detecting Critical Scales in Fragmented Landscapes},
	journal = {Conservation Ecology},
	volume = {1},
	year = {1997},
	pages = {4},
	author = {Keitt, TH and Urban, D L and Milne, B T}
}
@article {ISI:A1996UC98500017,
	title = {Detection of critical densities associated with pinon-juniper woodland ecotones},
	journal = {ECOLOGY},
	volume = {77},
	year = {1996},
	month = {apr},
	pages = {805{\textendash}821},
	publisher = {ECOLOGICAL SOC AMER},
	type = {Article},
	address = {2010 MASSACHUSETTS AVE, NW, STE 400, WASHINGTON, DC 20036},
	abstract = {The interfaces between pifion-juniper canopies and grasslands in the southwestern USA present an opportunity to use the modern theory of spatial phase transitions as a formal characterization of ecotone structure. The theory requires an estimation of a critical value of tree cover at which the woodlands switch abruptly from a fragmented collection of small patches of trees to a network of connected canopies. Presumably, this transition is associated with critical environmental conditions that regulate the ecologies of trees vs. grasses. We developed and tested a new method to estimate the critical cover value of woodlands on complex terrain. The method was based on multiscale assessments of the associations between local tree coverage and two types of patch edge. Tests on artificial gradient percolation maps revealed an interaction between the type of edge used ({\textquoteright}{\textquoteright}hull edge,{\textquoteright}{\textquoteright} which is based on only the orthogonal connections between canopy-occupied cells, vs. {\textquoteleft}{\textquoteright}accessible edge,{\textquoteright}{\textquoteright} which is based on both orthogonal and diagonal connections beween canopy-occupied cells) and the neighborhood rule used to define a cluster (von Neumann 5-cell or Moore 9-cell). When applied to digitized, geographically referenced aerial photographs, the method indicated that areas less than or equal to 6.6 ha exhibited the theoretical critical value of 59.3\% cover predicted for square lattices and the 5-cell neighborhood. Construction of both edge types on a given map can reveal locations of steep environmental gradients that may be buffered against modest climate fluctuations. The edges can be used in the calibration of independent variables to predict tree cover. The agreement between the expected and observed critical densities will motivate extensions of phase transition theory to studies of ecotones in real landscapes.},
	keywords = {accessible edge, critical phenomena, ecotones, fra},
	issn = {0012-9658},
	author = {Milne, B T and Johnson, A R and Keitt, TH and Hatfield, C A and David, J and Hraber, P T}
}
@article {keitt-1996,
	title = {The Introduced Hawaiian Avifauna Reconsidered: Evidence for Self-Organized Criticality?},
	journal = {Journal of Theoretical Biology},
	volume = {182},
	year = {1996},
	pages = {161{\textendash}167},
	author = {Keitt, Timothy H and Marquet, Pablo A}
}
@mastersthesis {keitt1995spatial,
	title = {Spatial complexity and critical phenomena in ecological systems},
	year = {1995},
	school = {University of New Mexico},
	type = {phd},
	author = {Keitt, TH}
}
@article {ISI:A1995QF78200003,
	title = {Spatial heterogeneity and anonmalous kinetics: emergent patterns in diffusion-limited predator-prey interactions},
	journal = {Journal of Theoretical Biology},
	volume = {172},
	year = {1995},
	month = {jan},
	pages = {127{\textendash}139},
	publisher = {ACADEMIC PRESS (LONDON) LTD},
	type = {Article},
	address = {24-28 OVAL RD, LONDON, ENGLAND NW1 7DX},
	abstract = {The Lotka-Volterra model of predator-prey interaction is based on the assumption of mass action, a concept borrowed from the traditional theory of chemical kinetics in which reactants are assumed to be homogeneously mixed. In order to explore the effect of spatial heterogeneity on predator-prey dynamics, we constructed a lattice-based reaction-diffusion model corresponding to the Lotka-Volterra equations. Spatial heterogeneity was imposed on the system using percolation maps, gradient percolation maps, and fractional Brownian surfaces. In all simulations where diffusion distances were short, anomalously low reaction orders and aggregated spatial patterns were observed, including traveling wave patterns. In general, the estimated reaction order decreased with increasing degrees of spatial heterogeneity. For simulations using percolation maps with p-values varying between 1.0 (all cells available) to 0.5 (50\% available), order estimates varied from 1.27 to 0.47. Gradient percolation maps and fractional Brownian surfaces also resulted in anomalously low reaction orders. Increasing diffusion distances resulted in reaction order estimates approaching the expected value of 2. Analysis of the qualitative dynamics of the model showed little difference between simulations where individuals diffused locally and those where individuals moved to random locations, suggesting that global density dependence is an important determinant of the overall model dynamics. However, localized interactions did introduce time dependence in the system attractor owing to emergent spatial patterns. We conclude that individual-based spatially explicit models are important tools for modeling population dynamics as they allow one to incorporate fine-scale ecological data about localized interactions and then to observe emergent patterns through simulation. When heterogeneous patterns arise, it can lead to anomalies with respect to the predictions of traditional mathematical approaches using global state variables.},
	issn = {0022-5193},
	author = {Keitt, TH and Johnson, A R}
}
@mastersthesis {keitt1992hierarchical,
	title = {Hierarchical organization of energy and information in a tropical rain forest ecosystem},
	year = {1992},
	school = {University of Florida},
	type = {phd},
	author = {Keitt, TH}
}
